notes from pittsburgh containing opinions

dissecting the Fetterman-Oz flip in an information market

John Fetterman
Mehmet Oz
US Senate for PA 2022
midterm elections
information markets
Predictit

Fetterman led in the race for election to the U.S. Senate for a long time. Then, Oz overtook Fetterman. How did the Predictit information market track this flip?

empathy: a letter to my friends

empathy
immigration
Martha's Vineyard
Blade Runner
John Stuart Mill
The Intelligence Trap
Trumpism

A moral compass is needed to weigh into controversial and complex ethical issues.

information markets: alternatives to survey methods for estimating candidate preferences of the electorate

decision markets
election polls
information aggregation
information markets
prediction markets
survey alternatives
survey methods

Information markets that operate like commodities future markets are cost-conscious alternatives to using survey methods for identifying beliefs, opinions, and voting expectations held by the electorate about candidates for public office.

ostrich epistemology

practical epistemology
openmindedness
learning
humility

*Learning* involves *thinking*; its whetstone is *reasoning*; it requires intellectual *humility*, not arrogance. Learning, thinking, reasoning, and humility currently are in short supply, I assert, in this brief essay.

death to honor and remember

Herodatus
ancient Greeks
Memorial Day
honor
death

Why have a Memorial Day?

a bunch of sun flung at the earth?

solar storms
cataclysm
electric power grid
disaster preparation

Serious scientists can barely stir a yawn from the public, legislators, and polkicy-makers when in discussions about preparations for and consequences of severe solar events...published in 2009

reading Moby-Dick

literature
Moby Dick

Advice for any young person required to read Moby-Dick...written in 2006

leave it at the stream

story
losing regret
compassion
presence

A lesson about staying in the present from Marshall Goldsmith...written in 2006

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notes from pittsburgh containing opinions




The opinions in these NOTES are mine on the day I wrote them. Do I believe my own opinions now? Maybe. Did I believe them on the day I wrote them? Maybe. Sometimes I wrote these opinions to road test an argument or to follow a thread of thought. These opinions are not research papers, Information is cited lightly and sometimes one-sidedly. Look, I am just taking them out for a test ride. Write your own posting, respond to mine, or just walk on to Starbucks.